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paper代寫,中間品進口對英國制造品出口的影響分

發布于2020-09-22 作者:留學寫作網 閱讀:
I. Introduction
In recent years, the British foreign trade surplus continues to expand to the United Kingdom has brought political and economic lot of problems, but also attracted wide attention from scholars at home and abroad. Research shows that the United Kingdom in the international division of labor in which the position is the main reason for British foreign trade imbalances, namely the United Kingdom in the international production networks play a role in processing and assembly ground, a large number of imported intermediate products are processed and exported to overseas assembly, led to a substantial increase in UK exports. Henryk Kierzkowski and Lurong Chen (2007) noted that today, spare parts trade more frequently than the final product, fragmentation of production and outsourcing has become the norm. Tian (2005) believes that the current development of the newly industrialized countries and the British state has come into the international division of labor, not only in the volume of trade within the product to become a significant growth in international trade reasons, but also a change in the pattern of international trade flows are an important force, a British national industrialization and development of industrial structure upgrading in new ways. Cui Wei (2009) under the United Nations BEC Industry Classification Standard intermediate goods imports to the UK size was estimated that the British imported goods mainly for intermediate inputs, the proportion of total imports reached 60%, the UK has to actively join the international product within the division of labor. Sven. W. Arndt (2007) emphasized that now, more and more products are produced in a number of countries, for the analysis of the bilateral trade balance has gradually lost value considering.
 
 
In view of the international division of labor in which the United Kingdom's position, imports of intermediate goods export capacity of the United Kingdom will inevitably have a huge impact, this paper aims to analyze the data size of the United Kingdom and the use of intermediate goods imports panel data analysis of its manufactured goods to the UK exports.
 
Second, the scale of Britain's imports of intermediate goods  
In this paper, intermediate goods imports on British exports of manufactured goods, first need to analyze the size of the United Kingdom imported intermediate goods. Since this article focuses primarily on intermediate goods imports on manufactured exports impact analysis, so the corresponding intermediate goods refers to the production of manufactured goods needed intermediate inputs, based on SITC 2 classification criteria, mainly in categories 7 and 8 categories of products (71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,82,87,88,89 of 13 categories), which defines see Francis Ng, Alexander Yeats (1999). From 1987 to the present, the UK's intermediate goods imports have been expanding, the world's total share of total imports of intermediate goods is improving, where the main choice of 1989, 1999 and 2009, three years of data were analyzed, as shown in Figure 1 .
 
As can be seen from Figure 1, from 1989 to 2009, in addition to 72 classes and 89 classes total world imports of intermediate goods intermediate goods decreased the proportion of total imports, other categories of intermediate goods imports a substantial proportion radiate upward trend, 2009 most categories of total world imports of intermediate goods imports accounted for more than 5%, in particular 73 class - metal processing machinery, 75 classes - office machines and automatic data processing equipment, 77 classes - Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and parts and 88 classes - photographic equipment and supplies, optical goods, watches and other import share of intermediate goods accounted for 10% of total world imports more than 77 classes and 88 classes even more than 15%, the UK has such intermediate goods imports large scale, enough to show that the UK has become the "world factory", a large number of imported intermediate inputs for processing and then assemble the finished products exported to other countries and regions.
 
Figure 1 UK share of world imports of all kinds of intermediate goods imports of intermediate goods, the proportion of the total
Source: UN COMTRADE database, and authors' calculations
However, imports of intermediate goods alone of the world's total imports of intermediate goods is not enough to explain the proportion of processing and assembly areas in the United Kingdom has the advantage of imports Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index can give a strong proof. Import export RCA RCA index is an index of deformation, when the RCA index of intermediate goods imports data to be calculated, then the index can be used to determine a country whether parts assembly has a comparative advantage, the formula is:
 
If more than one explanation i country j product assembly has a comparative advantage, and vice versa, then i country j product assembly has a comparative disadvantage.
 
According import RCA index formula can be calculated in relation to the United Kingdom intermediate goods processing and assembly industries whether comparative advantage in Figure 2 for the 2009 British imports of 13 categories of manufacturing industries RCA index.
 
Figure 2 2009 English 13 class manufacturing industries, the import RCA index
 
Source: UN COMTRADE database, and authors' calculations
 
As can be seen from Figure 2, 2009 English 73 class - metal processing machinery, 75 classes - office machines and automatic data processing equipment, 77 classes - Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts, 87 classes - professional scientific control instruments, appliances and 88 classes - photographic equipment and supplies, optical goods, watches and other import RCA index greater than 1, indicating that the UK's processing and assembly in these industries is a comparative advantage, and corresponding to Figure 1, these imports of intermediate goods industries accounted for the proportion of total world imports is the highest.
 
Third, imports of intermediate goods exports manufactured goods to the UK Empirical Analysis of Influence
 
From the above analysis we can see that the UK is huge imports of intermediate goods, and in some manufacturing industries have a comparative advantage on the processing and assembly, which will be on British exports of manufactured goods have a direct impact, resulting in British foreign trade surplus increases. So, what intermediate goods imports to what extent, affected the UK's exports of manufactured goods, this paper uses empirical analysis approach to research.
 
Here the use of data for the years 1987-2009, using panel data model imported intermediate goods exports manufactured goods to Britain effects econometric model set
Log express values ??related to the definition of indicators and data sources are shown in Table 1.
 
Table 1 Variable Definitions and Data Sources
After the first part of the analysis, we can know that the UK imports of intermediate goods and import RCA index can be used to measure the size of the United Kingdom imports of intermediate goods, and these two indicators there is a certain correlation between these two indicators were substituted into the model panel data regression, can measure both intermediate goods imports to the UK's exports of manufactured goods, but also the stability of the model can be tested, so set up two structures the same model. As Britain's manufactured exports by supply and demand factors, the supply-side effects can be used to measure the UK's GDP, while the demand side of the trading partners with the United Kingdom's economic development are closely related, so in the model joined the UK's main trading partners weighted GDP as an explanatory variable, calculated by the 2008 British exports, the top 25 countries or territories purpose weighted GDP. RMB real effective exchange rate is an important factor affecting the British exports, and therefore needs to be placed on the explanatory variables in the model.
 
In order to avoid the impact of the sequence autocorrelation in the model estimates the number of data pairs of first-order differential, in the table below for brevity, PC means that British imports of intermediate goods for the first difference value indicators, other indicators similar. Upon examination, using a random effects model, the empirical results shown in Table 2.
 
Table 2 intermediate goods imports to the UK manufactured exports Empirical Results
 
Note: ***, **, * denote 1%, 5% and 10% significant level, a value of t values ??in parentheses.
 
The empirical results comparing the two models can be seen, the coefficient of variation is relatively stable and insignificant, indicating that the model structure more stable. Intermediate goods imports on British exports of manufactured goods is reflected in the PC and the RCA coefficients showed that imports of intermediate goods and the import RCA index of manufactured exports to the UK there is a significant positive effect, that is, the increase in imports of intermediate goods and imported RCA index will rise significantly promote British exports of manufactured goods increased. Intermediate goods imports increased by 1%, the UK manufactured exports will increase by 0.35%, while imports RCA index rose 1 percent, the UK manufactured exports will increase by 0.11 percent. This result clearly shows that the United Kingdom in the international production networks are playing the role of processing and assembly to cause the British manufactured goods exports increased significantly. Britain's GDP and the UK's major trading partner countries equally weighted GDP exports of manufactured goods to the UK produce a positive and significant impact, especially in major trading partner countries GDP, every 1% change will bring British manufactured exports is greater than 1% change, indicating that foreign demand is an important factor UK exports. RMB real effective exchange rate for British exports of manufactured goods there is a significant negative impact that the RMB appreciation would lead to a decline in exports of manufactured goods, the United Kingdom, the results in line with expectations.
 
CONCLUSIONS
 
This analysis shows that the UK is huge intermediate goods imports and imports of intermediate goods exports manufactured goods to the UK have a significant role in promoting, indicating the UK in the international production networks plays a major role in processing and assembly ground, from Japan, South Korea and other newly industrialized countries for processing and assembly of imported intermediate goods and then final products will be exported to Europe, America and other developed countries and regions. Therefore, the British foreign exports actually contains a large component of other countries, did not quite get the benefits of foreign trade surplus.
 
一,產品簡介
近年來,英國的外貿順差繼續擴大到英國的政治和經濟帶來很多問題,但也引起了廣泛關注,在國內和國外的學者。研究表明,英國在國際分工中的位置的主要原因是英國的外貿失衡,即英國在國際生產網絡中發揮作用的加工和組裝地,大量進口中間產品加工,并出口到海外組裝,導致英國出口大幅增加。 :亨里克Kierzkowski和鹿茸陳(2007)指出,今天不是最??終產品,分散的生產和外包已經成為一種常態,備件貿易更加頻繁。田(2005)認為,新興工業化國家和英國國家目前的發展已經進入國際分工,不僅在產品內貿易的體積成為一個顯著的增長,國際貿易的原因,也有改變在國際貿易流動格局的重要力量,英國的國家工業化和產業結構的發展以新的方式進行升級。崔嵬(2009年)根據聯合國BEC行業分類標準的中間品進口到英國的大小估計,英國進口商品主要是中間投入,占進口總額的比重達到了60%,英國有積極投身國際產品內的分工。斯文。 ·阿恩特(2007)強調,現在,越來越多的產品是在一些國家,為雙邊貿易平衡的分析已經逐漸失去價值考慮。
 
 
鑒于在國際分工的勞動力在英國的地位,進口中間品的出口能力,英國將不可避免地有一個巨大的影響,本文旨在分析的數據大小英國和中間產品的使用進口面板數據分析英國出口其制成品。
 
其次,英國進口的中間產品的規模
在本文中,英國的工業制成品出口的中間產品進口,首先需要分析英國進口的中間產品的大小。由于本文主要側重于中間產品的進口制成品出口的影響分析,所以相應的中間產品是指生產制成品所需的中間投入,海豐2分類標準的基礎上,主要集中在7類和8類產品(71 72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,82,87,88,89共13個類別),它定義見吳鎮宇,亞歷山大·葉芝(1999年)。從1987年至目前,英國的中間品進口已經擴大,中間產品的進口總額在世界總份額的提高,地方的主要選擇,1989年,1999年和2009年,三年的數據進行分析,如圖1。
 
從圖1可以看出,1989至2009年,除了72類和89類,占世界總進口中間產品的中間產品進口總額的比重下降,其他類別的中間品進口相當大的比例輻射呈上升趨勢,2009年大多數種類的中間產品進口占世界進口總額的5%以上,尤其是73類 - 金屬加工機械,75類 - 辦公室機器和自動數據處理設備,77類 - 電動機械,儀器和用具及零件超過77類和88類,88類 - 攝影器材和供應品,光學器材,鐘表和其他中間產品的進口份額占世界總進口量的10%,甚至超過15%,英國有這樣的中間產品進口規模大,足以顯示,英國已成為“世界工廠”,大量的進口中間投入處理,然后組裝成品出口到其他國家和地區。
 
圖1英國占世界進口各種中間品進口的中間產品,占總數的比例
資料來源:聯合國商品貿易統計數據庫,和作者的計算
然而,進口中間產品獨自的世界總進口的中間產品,是不是足以說明加工和裝配領域的比例在英國進口的優勢,顯性比較優勢指數(RCA)可以給出一個有力的證明。進出口RCA RCA指數是一個指數的變形,中間產品進口數據的RCA指數來計算,那么指數可以被用來確定一個零部件裝配是否具有比較優勢的國家,其公式為:
 
如果超過一個解釋我j國產品裝配具有比較優勢,反之亦然,則i j國的產品裝配有比較劣勢。
 
根據進口RCA指數的計算公式,可以計算有關英國中間產品加工和組裝行業的比較優勢是否在2009年英國進口的13類制造業RCA指數圖2。
 
圖2 2009年英語13級的制造業,進口RCA指數
 
資料來源:聯合國商品貿易統計數據庫,和作者的計算
 
可以看出,從2009年圖2中,英語73類 - 金屬加工機械,75類 - 辦公室機器和自動數據處理設備,77類 - 電動機械,儀器和用具及零件,87類 - 專業科學的控制手段,電器及88類 - 攝影器材和用品,光學器材,鐘表和其他進口的RCA指數大于1,表明,英國的加工和裝配在這些行業中是比較優勢,并對應到圖1,這些進口的中間產品產業占世界總進口量的比例是最高的。
 
第三,進口中間產品的出口??制成品英國影響的實證分析
 
從上面的分析中,我們可以看到,英國大量進口中間品,在某些制造業具有比較優勢的加工和裝配,這將是英國的工業制成品出口有直接的影響,導致英國外交貿易順差增加。那么,什么中間品進口到什么程度,影響了英國的工業制成品出口,本文采用實證分析的方法來研究。
 
這里使用年1987年至2009年的數據,采用面板數據模型進口中間品出口制成品英國效應計量模型集
日志有關的指標和數據來源的定義如表1所示的明確的值。
 
表1變量定義和數據來源
經過第一部分的分析,我們可以知道,英國進口的中間產品和進口RCA指數可以用來衡量英國進口的中間產品的大小,這兩項指標這兩者之間有一定的相關性指標取代成面板數據回歸模型,既可以測量中間貨物進口到英國的工業制成品出口,而且還可以測試模型的穩定性,所以設置了兩個結構相同的模型。作為英國的制造出口由供給和需求因素,供給方面的效果可以使用,以衡量英國的國內生產總值,而英國的經濟發展貿易合作伙伴的需求側都密切相關,因此在模型中加入了英國的主要貿易伙伴的加權GDP作為解釋變量,由2008年英國出口,前25個國家或地區的目的GDP加權計算。人民幣實際有效匯率影響英國出口的一個重要因素,因此需要被放置在模型的解釋變量。
 
為了避免數據對一階差分序列自相關的影響在模型中估計的數量,為簡便起見,下表中,PC意味著英國進口中間產品的第一差值指標,其他指標類似。檢驗后,使用隨機效應模型,實證結果示于表2。
 
表2中間品進口到英國的出??口制造,實證結果
 
注:***,**,*分別表示1%,5%和10%的顯著性水平,括號中的值的值的t。
 
比較這兩種模型的研究結果可以看出,變異系數是相對穩定的和微不足道,表明模型的結構更穩定。英國的工業制成品出口的中間產品進口,反映在PC和RCA系數表明,進口中間產品和制成品出口到英國的進口RCA指數有顯著的積極作用,那就是,進口增幅中間品和進口RCA指數將上升顯著促進英國的工業制成品出口增加。中間產品的進口量增加了1%,英國的工業制成品出口將增加0.35%,而進口RCA指數上漲1%,英國的制成品出口將增加0.11個百分點。這個結果清楚地表明,英國在國際生產網絡中扮演的加工和裝配,導致英國制成品出口顯著增加。英國的國內生產總值和英國的主要貿易伙伴國家的平均加權GDP的出口工業制成品的英國產生了積極和重要的影響,尤其是在主要貿易伙伴國家的國內生產總值,每1%變動將帶來英國的制成品出口大于1%的變化,這表明國外需求是英國出口的一個重要因素。人民幣實際有效匯率對英國出口制成品,有一個顯著的負面影響,人民幣升值將導致出口下降,制成品,英國,結果與預期相符。
 
結論
 
這一分析表明,英國是巨大的中間品進口量和進口中間產品出口到英國制成品有顯著的促進作用,表明英國在國際生產網絡中發揮了重要作用,加工和組裝地,從日本,韓國等新興工業化國家進口中間產品的加工和組裝,然后最終產品將出口到歐洲,美國和其他發達國家和地區。因此,英國的對外出口其他國家實際上包含了大量的組件,并沒有獲得外貿順差帶來的好處。

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