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coursework代寫The Economy of China

發布于2020-05-22 作者:留學寫作網 閱讀:

 

Abstract
This paper examines empirically the relationship between economic growth and the Chinese government’s economic polices by analyzing the quantities of economic performance. The result shows that the optimization of economic polices push the economic growth up, and to the financial reform. Moreover, this article talks about our economic goals on the basis of the national economic growth and how to develop a healthy economic performance. In addition , we also analyze the current economic situation focusing on the current problems, striking to find keys to them and improve our living standard.
Materials Recourse: Angus.(2008); Shi and Li.(2008); Zhou Muzhi.(2008); et. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn ; http://english.gov.cn. http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/
Chapter I  Introduction
China’s economy is huge and expanding rapidly. In the last 30 years the rate of Chinese economic growth has been almost miraculous, averaging 8% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per annum. The economy has grown more than 10 times during that period, with Chinese GDP reaching 3.42 trillion US dollars by 2007. In Purchasing Power Parity GDP, China already has the biggest economy after the United States. Most analysts project China to become the largest economy in the world this century using all measures of GDP. This paper analyses the Chinese economy in recent years from a perspective view. Chapter II takes a closer look at the Chinese economic policies and targets that set by Chinese government, including the  fiscal, monetary, trading and economic growth policies adopted by China government in the past 10 years. Chapter Ⅲ identifies the overview of Chinese economy, that is, Chinese performance in the economy in the past years. Chapter Ⅳ makes out some suggestions about how to  soundly develop the economy in the future. Chapter Ⅴ concludes our general ideas that our economic aim is to build a harmonious and moderately prosperous society. To achieve the goal, the Government will address its development challenges through a balanced strategy that aims to build a harmonious society and a socialist market economy that is energy-efficient and environmentally friendly.
 
2.1 The monetary policies
The Chinese government’s monetary policy instruments applied by the PBC(People's Bank of China ) include reserve requirement ratio, central bank base interest rate, rediscounting, central bank lending, open market operation and other policy instruments specified by the State Council. The objective of the monetary policy is to maintain the stability of the value of the currency and thereby promote economic growth.In 1998, the national bank credit quota was scrapped and the PBC in theory has had to rely on adjusting its own balance sheet to manage the monetary base. Since then, the PBC has tried to develop the influence of the interest rate. The tools for influencing money creation in China are now mostly present. However, they are not yet as effective as they need to be to enable the PBC to run an effective monetary policy. Consider the three main ones: OMO, discount rate and reserve requirements. Open market operations in China began in October 1998, when the PBC started cash trading of bonds. In comparison to repos, bills can be traded, which improves liquidity, and regular bill auctions allow an interest rate benchmark to be formed. The PBC has developed the primary bill market to include 52 dealers, including banks securities companies, insurers, rural credit co-operatives etc. PBC bill auctions use both volume- and rate-based bidding. The PBC is reported to have a dedicated OMO trading room managed by the PBC’s Monetary Policy Division.Box 1 below. At first the PBC only engaged in one OMO a week. In the early days, cash bond trading was the most common means of adjusting the monetary base. After a short period, this was replaced by bond-based repo transactions since these had the advantage vis-à-vis bonds of affecting money market rates (and not impacting on the bond market). On June 25th 2002 the central bank started using reverse MoF- bond-based repos to cope with new FX inflows. However, by September 2002, the PBC had run out of bonds upon which to make repo transactions. To resolve this, the central bank determined that all outstanding repo contracts issued between June 26th and September 24th would not be honoured as such, but would be converted into a new instrument, PBC bills. The conversion resulted in bills worth CNY193.8bn (USD23.3bn), which appears on the central bank’s balance sheet in September 2002. The first auction of ‘new’ central bank bills took place in May 2003 and since then the market has grown substantially. From February 25th 2003, the central bank has engaged in two (or more) OMOs a week.It has also developed a liquidity management system, which now provides a daily update on banks’ liquidity positions.Table 1 summarises the PBC’s OMOs since 1998 (China Financial Stability Analysis Group,2005).
Table 1: Open market operations 
Released base  Withdrawn base  Net base  money effect 
5-12/98  176  107  +70 
1999  708  526  +181 
2000  447  573  -127 
2001  825  873  -47 
2002  185  305  -120 
2003  1,024  1,223  -198
2004  1,218  1,997  -669
Source: PBC Monetary Policy Reports, Author, Shui and Sun (2003)
Second, the discount rate, the rate at which the PBC lends into the money market. On March 25th 2004, the PBC introduced ‘floating rate’ central bank rediscount lending. In other words, the PBC now has right to set the discount rate without having to seek State Council permission each time. At the same time, the PBC added 63 bps to the benchmark discount rate for financial institutions, and 27 bps to the standard rate to take the central bank’s core rediscount rate to 3.24%. Floating rate rediscount lending will be phased in over three years for the rural credit co-operatives (Financial Stability Analysis Group, 2007).
Third, the reserve requirement. The PBC reduced this ratio in the late 1990s as table 2 shows, in an attempt to stimulate credit growth and to give the banks more flexibility in how they managed their funds. At the same time, the central bank has steadily reduced the rates it pays on reserves, both required and excess, as table 3 shows, in an attempt to encourage banks to lend into the money markets rather than place their excess funds on deposit with the central bank. On April 25th 2004, the PBC adopted a differentiated reserve ratio system, meaning that second-tier banks, with capital adequacy ratios or asset quality etc. below certain standards would have to hold 8% reserves (compared to the standard level of 7.5%). Rural and urban credit co-operative were exempted from this rule for the time being. Ma and McCauley (2004) note that by mid-2004, 38 second-tier banks were subject to the new higher level, affecting about 10% of deposits in the system (Financial Market Department of the PBC,2006).
Table 2. China’s banks’ required reserve ratio, % 
RRR %
1985-86  10 
1987  12 
1988-98  13 
1998  8 
1999-2002  6 
2003  7 
2004  7.5 
2005        13
2006 8.5
2007 13.5
Source: People's Bank of China
Table 3. Interest rates paid on required reserves, % 
1998.03.25 5.22 
1998.07.01 3.51 
1998.12.07 3.24 
1999.06.10 2.07 
2002.02.21 1.89
2003.12.21  1.89 (with new, lower, rate on excess reserves) 
2004.10.09 5.22
2006.04.28 5.4
2006.08.19 5.58
2007.03.18 5.67
2007.05.19 5.85
2007.07.21 6.03
2007.08.22 6.21
2007.09.15 6.48
2007.12.21 6.57
Source: People's Bank of China
Note: Before December 2003, there was only one interest rate, 1.89%, for both required and excess reserves. After this date, however, while this rate was maintained for required reserves, excess reserves were paid a new, lower rate of 1.62%. On March 17th, the rate was lowered again to 0.99%(The PBC Shanghai Head Office, 2006).
2.2  The fiscal policy
A fiscal policy is when the government changes taxation and increases government spending. Through an expansionary fiscal policy it aims at increasing the amount of disposable income people will have. This income will, depending on the marginal propensity to consume, be spent in the economy. The result of this will be that aggregate demand will increase thus eliminating the deflationary gap which is caused by either growth or unemployment. Moreover fiscal policy aims at increasing government spending. If government spending increases the investment in the economy which will be translated as an increase of investment in the economy and which will in turn close the deflationary gap. Through a contractionary demand side policy the government aims at decreasing the amount of disposable income and thus reducing consumption within the economy which will in turn lead in a reduction of aggregate demand. In terms of government spending the government will reduce government spending so as to reduce investment and t hus close the inflationary gap. discretionary fiscalpolicy should focus on long run issues, such as tax reform and social security reform (Ji and Lin, 2008).
From the following figures you can see China's economy performed well in the first half according to the economic indicators. 
 
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China
 
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Take 2007 for example, According to the numbers, China's GDP grew 11.4%, retail sales grew 16.8%, fixed asset investments grew 24.8% and foreign trade exports grew 23.5%. Economists point out that the turnaround in China's economy shows that China's active fiscal policy is working. The fiscal policy has undoubtedly expanded domestic demand. China's fiscal expenditures continued to increase in the first half along with the growing economy. Fiscal earnings totaled 624 billion yuan, up 94.6 billion from the same period last year or 17.9%. Fiscal expenditures totaled 583.8 billion yuan, up 119 billion yuan from the same period last year or 25.6% (The World Bank Group, 2008). China's active fiscal policy spured economic growth by using greater fiscal spending. In recent years, faced with problems such as lagging domestic demand, increased unemployment, an irrational economic structure and a slow increase in farmers' income, the CCP and State Council decided to adopt this policy to spur investments and increase consumer spending and exports. In the second half of 1998, due to the Asian financial crisis and lack of domestic demand, the Chinese authorities issued 100 billion yuan worth of Treasury bonds to fund infrastructure construction. In addition to the 50 billion yuan in bonds set aside in the 1999 preliminary budget, another 60 billion yuan long-term debt was issued to increase investments. At the same time, the tax policy to increase investments and expand exports increased the income of the lower class urban residents. In the past two years, the state has used treasury bonds to increase infrastructure construction, support technological renovations in enterprises and spur economic growth. According to the central party's economic conferences held towards the end of last year, China continued implement its active fiscal policy. Early this year, 100 billion yuan in Treasury bonds was penciled into this year's budget. The state continued 2000's tax policy and income adjustment policy. Foreign firms investing in the central and western regions of China enjoyed a 15% cut in income tax. Foreign investors undergoing restructuring was not allowed to receive tax drawbacks. And, 238 transportation and car "administration fees" imposed by local governments were eliminated (Wang, 2008).
Increasing investments in infrastructure not only caused the production and prices of resources such as concrete, steel, nonferrous metals, it has pushed up the prices of consumer industrial goods. The elimination of taxes on fixed asset investments, such as business tax on real estate, contract tax, value-added tax on land, has stimulated the growth of China's real estate industry. Many of the government's tax policy has tried to encourage the development of high tech startups. Billions of bonds were used to provide interest rate subsidies on loans so large- and mid-size enterprises could upgrade their technology (Angus,2008) .
 
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China
2.3  The trading policy
Trade volume is measured in relation to the size of the domestic economy, and is shown as three values: the value of exports as a percentage of GDP, the value of imports as a percentage of GDP, and the combined value of both imports and exports as a percentage of GDP. Trade volume shows how much the economy depends on foreign trade. A nation turns abroad for anything it needs that it cannot generate domestically. Exports reflect dependence on foreign markets, while imports reflect dependence on foreign-made goods and services. High levels of trade volume reflect vigorous engagement with the global economy.The Current Account Balance [CAB] is a record of money flowing into a national economy through foreign trade, minus money flowing out through foreign trade. It is shown as a percentage of GDP. For more detail, see the Glossary. Source: International Monetary Fund.When a nation's CAB is positive, foreign trade is pouring money into its economy, making more available for investment, consumption and taxation. When the CAB is negative, foreign trade is draining money out of its economy, diminishing the stock of wealth available for these activities (Shi and Li , 2008).The world is rapidly changing. Goods, technology, investments and jobs are moving across borders faster than ever before. Globalisation is fundamentally changing the nature of commerce for countries, companies and citizens the world over, and presents major challenges.In response to this change, Chinese government has adopted appropriate trading policies to keep the current account balance.These are the different trade policies adopted according to the different situations:
1990-1997: Foreign investment grows tenfold between 1990 and 1997. Despite unwieldy contractual and legal framework, China's billion-plus customers lure many investors, especially from ethnic Chinese in areas near Hong Kong and Taiwan (Mnkiw, N. Goregory, 1997).
1999: China's global trade totals $353 billion; its trade surplus is $36 billion. China's primary trading partners are Japan, Taiwan, the United States, South Korea, Hong Kong, Germany, Singapore, Russia, and the Netherlands. In November, the United States and China arrive at a bilateral market-access agreement that paves the way for China's accession to the World Trade Organization.
2000: China reaches a bilateral WTO agreement with the European Union and other trade partners and begins work on a multilateral WTO accession package. To increase exports, China encourages the formation of factories that assemble imported components into consumer goods for export. The U.S. approves permanent trade relations with China, and President Clinton signs the China Trade Relations Act of 2000.
2001-2003: In 2001 China serves as the Asia Pacific Economic Group's (APEC) chair; Shanghai hosts the annual APEC leaders meeting. After the 2001 World Trade Organization summit in Qatar, China becomes a full member of the WTO. Many tariffs and regulations are streamlined or ended, but foreign investors still face procedural obstacles. Trading partners complain that the Chinese currency is undervalued.       
2004-2005:According to the report (Financial Market Department of the PBC ,2006), China’s foreign trade maintained the rapid growth since the second half of 2002, and climbed from the fifth largest country in foreign trade in 2002 to the fourth, which further consolidated its position as a large trading country, and made more contribution to the development of China’s national economy. Moreover, there was still a large space left for China’s exports to grow rapidly in 2005. However, the complicated and constant-changing international situations pose a potential threat to the world economy, and the keep rising prices of the domestic upstream products would obstruct exports growth. Encouraged by the domestic investment demands, China’s imports would continue to go high, but the growth rate will mainly rest with the development trends of domestic investment and the force and effect of macro-economic control.
2006-2007: In 2006, China's foreign trade stood at 1.76 trillion U.S. dollars, up 23.6 percent year-on-year, ranking third in the world. China's imports and exports of goods likely amounted to 2.1 trillion U.S. dollars for the whole year, a growth of 20 percent over the year-earlier level in 2007.External trade has continued to grow rapidly since the beginning of the year, the report says. Foreign sales of machinery, electronics, textiles and clothing and footwear posted sustained growth. Trade with major partners, including the European Union, the United States and Japan, has increased continuously (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Department of Economics,2008).
  
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China
2.4 The economic growth policy
The economic Growth is measured as the annual per cent change in the value of the gross domestic product after taking account of inflation. A positive economic growth rate means more of everything than before: more production, more demand for labor, and more wealth available for consumption, taxation and investment. A negative growth rate means the economy is shrinking. Jobs are more scarce and do not pay as well as in boom times. These are the economic growth in China from 1998 to 2003:
1998-2000: By 1999, with 1.25 billion people and a GDP of $3,800 per capita, China's is the fastest growing economy in the world, and also the second largest after the U.S. But the country remains poor, lacking the monetary and fiscal controls to manage its vast economy. The government turns to banks to provide failing SOEs loans, but they are not repaid. The banking system is threatened.
2001-2003: After China joins the WTO, foreign investment surges to a record high. Strong growth masks internal disparities between cities and rural areas, coastal and interior regions. Cuts in tariffs and rules streamline business, but the huge state-owned sector remains deeply troubled and extremely hard to reform. In 2003 the spread of the deadly SARS virus has a severe impact on China's economy. (Ji and Lin, 2008)
2004-2007: The following years continued to witness the rapid economic rise of China, with an emphasis on both quality and speed. In the first half of the 21st century, rural areas remained to be the "strategic citadel" of expanding domestic demand and economic growth. In the face of energy and resource challenges, China plans to lay the groundwork of a resource-efficient society in 30 years. Other priorities include: building a favourable environment for international exchange, persisting in the path of "bringing-in, going global" and advancing international competition and cooperation based on mutual benefit and win-win situations. Moreover, to pursue independent innovation, develop private-run businesses, and engage the initiative of both local government and enterprises to enhance China's economic vibrancy and sustainable growth(http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/).
2.5 The economic targets
China adopts the "five-year-plan" strategy for economic development. The 9th Five-Year Plan (1996-2000) was outstandingly successful, and the 10th Five-Year Plan (2001-2005) mapped out the first plan for the new century, setting these main targets:
-- Sustaining fairly rapid growth, strategic restructuring, improving the quality and benefits of economic growth so as to lay firm foundations for doubling the 2000 GDP by 2010; substantial perfection of the socialist market economy and putting state-owned enterprises on a modern enterprise footing, thus allowing greater participation in international cooperation and competition (Liu and Zhang ,2008).
-- GDP to reach some 12,500 billion yuan, and per capita GDP 9,400 yuan by 2005 (at 2000 prices assuming annual economic growth of around 7 percent).
-- Optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure to sharpen China's competitive edge. By 2005, the added value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries will account for 13 percent, 51 percent and 36 percent, respectively, of GDP; employing 44 percent, 23 percent and 33 percent, respectively, of the labor force. Further improvement  to infrastructure; increased urbanization and bringing the widening development disparity between regions under effective control.
Most of these targets have already been achieved ahead of schedule. At present, the government is implementing the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010).
Chapter Ⅲ  Overview of China economy
Following the Chinese Communist Party's Third Plenum, held in October 2003, Chinese legislators unveiled several proposed amendments to the state constitution. One of the most significant was a proposal to provide protection for private property rights. Legislators also indicated there would be a new emphasis on certain aspects of overall government economic policy, including efforts to reduce unemployment (now in the 8-10% range in urban areas), to rebalance income distribution between urban and rural regions, and to maintain economic growth while protecting the environment and improving social equity. The National People's Congress approved the amendments when it met in March 2004 (Financial Stability Analysis Group,2007).
The Fifth Plenum in October 2005 approved the 11th Five-Year Economic Program (2006-2010) aimed at building a "harmonious society" through more balanced wealth distribution and improved education, medical care, and social security. On March 2006, the National People's Congress approved the 11th Five-Year Program. The plan called for a relatively conservative 45% increase in GDP and a 20% reduction in energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP) by 2010.China's economy grew at an average rate of 10% per year during the period 1990-2004, the highest growth rate in the world. China's GDP grew 10.0% in 2003, 10.1%, in 2004, and even faster 10.4% in 2005 despite attempts by the government to cool the economy. China's total trade in 2006 surpassed $1.76 trillion, making China the world's third-largest trading nation after the U.S. and Germany. Such high growth is necessary if China is to generate the 15 million jobs needed annually — roughly the size of Ecuador or Cambodia — to employ new entrants into the job market. (Zhou,2008)
4.1 Inflation
Inflation is measured as the annual percent change in the prices of goods deemed necessary for life in that country. The specific goods included in this "market basket" change only rarely, so this measure reflects fluctuation in purchasing power of the national currency. Source: International Monetary Fund. Producers in turn may raise their selling prices to cover these increases, scale back production to check their costs (resulting in lay-offs), or fail to invest in future production. During the winter of 2007-2008, inflation ran about 7% on an annual basis, rising to 8.7% in statistics for February 2008, released in March, 2008. The food and fuel sectors were major problem areas, with meat and fuel posing special difficulties. Shortages of gasoline and diesel fuel developed in the fall of 2007 due to reluctance of refineries to produce fuel at low prices set by the state. These prices were slightly increased in November, 2007 with fuel selling for $2.65 a gallon, still slightly below world prices. Price controls were in effect on numerous basic products and services, but were ineffective with food, prices of which were rising at an annual rate of 18.2% in November, 2007 (Beijing University of Chinese National Accounts and Economic Growth Research Center,2008).The problem of inflation has caused concern at the highest levels of the Chinese government. On January 9, 2008 the government of China issued the following statement on its official website: "The Chinese government decided on Wednesday to take further measures to stabilize market prices and increase the severity of punishments for those guilty of driving up prices through hoarding or cheating." Pork is an important part of the Chinese economy with a per capita consumption of a fifth of a pound per day. The worldwide rise in the price of animal feed associated with increased production of ethanol from corn resulted in steep rises in pork prices in China in 2007. Increased cost of production interacted badly with increased demand resulting from rapidly rising wages. The state responded by subsidizing pork prices for students and the urban poor and called for increased production. Release of pork from the nation's strategic pork reserve was considered. 
By January 2008, the inflation rate rose to 7.1%, which BBC News described as the highest inflation rate since 1997, due to the winter storms that month. China's inflation rate jumped to a new decade high of 8.7 percent in February 2008 after severe winter storms disrupted the economy and worsened food shortages, the government said March 11, 2008. Throughout the summer and fall, however, inflation fell again to a low of 6,6% in October, 2008 (China Daily, 2008).Well, in the last few years China inflation changes much. From 2000 to 2002, the rate of inflation have decreased year by year. The reasons for this phenomenon are complex , but what we can sure is that the development of our economy is unstable. Until 2006, we have witnessed a more steady developing economy, and our country have found new ways to control inflation.
The following table shows the rate of China annual inflation in recent years.
Year % of change
2000 0.4
2001 -0.7
2002 -0.8
2003 1.2
2004 3.9
2005 1.8
2006 1.5
Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics
4.2 Unemployment
Unemployment is measured annually as the percent of the labor force that cannot find a job. The labor force comprises adults who want to work. Uncounted are those who do not seek employment, or who have become discouraged enough to stop looking. Source: International Monetary Fund. Economies are powered by consumer spending and savings investment. Unemployed workers earn no wages; they spend little and save less. Economies with high levels of unemployment are stalled economies. China’s economy is likely to experience stagflation. Department of Labor and Social Security show that in the past five years, China's urban new jobs each year are more than 9,000,000 people in 2007 to reach 12,040,000 people, creating an active employment policy since the implementation of the best level; a total of 25,000,000 state-owned and collective enterprises laid-off workers Were re-employed; the registered urban unemployment rate from the 4.3 percent decline year by year, by the end of 2007 to 4.0 percent. In reality, the Chinese government has been inclined to strengthen structural policy while weakening total quantity policy. This round of tightening can be said to be selective “spot kill” by treating different things differently. For instance, different industries and enterprises are treated differently on a selective basis. Such control is structural control but the government does not say whether to contract or expand the total demand (Zhou, 2008).
Such control means may sharpen the focus of macro-control but it also contains administrative means that may hurt the normal functioning of the market economy. 
This is why some people allege that China’s market economic operation has retreated as a result of this round of macro-control. To expand total demand will expand demand and stimulate consumption. In this case, structural adjustment will not work and as a result an opposite policy direction must be adopted. In my opinion, the government should no longer employ any administrative control means in either case. China’s economy is inflation-prone in the short run but consequently unemployment-stricken in the long run. Therefore, monetary policy can no longer be further tightened because there is no room for tightening, as the statutory deposit reserve ratio has reached 17.5% as of today. When inflation raged at approximately 20% in 1994, the statutory reserve ratio was raised only to 13% or so. The room for further tightening is therefore very limited. (Zhao,2002)
4.3 Government expenditure
Government spending is the annual value of all government spending on goods and services, expressed as a percentage of the gross domestic product.Government spends in such large amounts that it has the power to stabilize commodity markets and otherwise shore up unsteady parts of the economy. By the same token, government is not very nimble; it responds slowly to market signals. As a result, its remedies may be untimely, even unhelpful. Economies that show high dependence on government spending may be less able to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Well, the table below well describing our increasing expenditures. As far as I know, comparing to old days, our living standard had improved much. To satisfy people’ need, our government makes great endeavors like strengthening the infrastructure experiment. As technology and education plays a big role on country-development, government put part of money on science and technology. Under this condition, the revenue is affected more or less. Obviously, it contributes to increase the revenue.
The increasing expenditures
 (10 000 MOP)
Items 2003  2004  2005  2006  2007①
Current Expenditure     
  Payroll 286983 295920 325074 343365 378572
  Goods and Services 57259 66366 77837 87397 141465
  Interest -  -  -  -  -
  Current Transfers 525171 559490 712599 818346r 859539
  Other Current Expenditure 4807 4970 5687 8033 94826
Capital Expenditure     
  Investments 236169 339416 433827 435491 351594
  Capital Transfers 2651 12133 6304 8800 9941
  Financial Transactions 33217 40140 13886 31037 49689
  Other Capital Expenditure -  -  -  -  -
Autonomous Agencies 425040 451866 543212 1002507r -
Total  1571297 1770301 2118426 2734976r 1885626
Note: ①Figures of 2007 are subject to revision as more data become available.
Chapter Ⅳ Suggestions
Currently with the global financial crisis rippling through the United States and Europe, China's once supercharged economic growth has slowed sharply, dropping from 12.6 percent in the second quarter of 2007 to about 9 percent in the third quarter of this year, according to national statistics. How can China survive? There no certain answer. My suggestions are as follows: First, we should adopt some easing monetary policies, active fiscal policies and upgrading industry sector standards, and make out some plans on taxes, credit and foreign trades well. Second, aside from active fiscal policies, the government should cut taxes to lower enterprises' costs and alleviate people's financial burdens, encouraging investment and consumption, the two main engines of the country's economic growth. Third, we need a reasonable allocation of the present market resources in order to promote the upgrade of China's economic structure. Furthermore, under the present economic situation, massive investment in infrastructure construction can stimulate the declining domestic demand and stabilize investment. Under the control of appropriate policy, in my view, economic growth rate will be still high.In a near future, GDP growth rate will reach 10.5 percent. I think we should strengthen various macro-economic policies’ portfolio management to create conditions for prosperity for the elimination of overheating pressures and slowing down the current round of economic cycle patterns. When it comes to Chinese economic problems, we can see the problem that serious imbalances exist behind the spectacular trade performance, high investment flows, and high GDP growth. High numbers of non-performing loans weigh down the state-run banking system. Inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are still a drag on growth, despite announced efforts to reform, sell, merge, or close the vast majority of SOEs. Social and economic indicators have improved since reforms were launched, but rising inequality is evident between the more highly developed coastal provinces and the less developed, poorer inland regions. According to World Bank estimates in 2007, around 300 million people in China — mostly in rural areas of the lagging inland provinces — still lived in poverty, on consumption of less than $1 a day.In conclusion, it’s time  for our government  to take measures to improve these bad conditions. Our great nation’s goal include  a marked improvement in quality of life, with 5 percent annual growth in the disposable income of urban residents and in the net income of rural residents; keeping the registered urban unemployment rate stable at around 5 percent; maintaining generally stable prices and basically balancing international revenue and expenditure, and so on (Xinhua, 2008).But in reality ,we have to face these problems, and struggle ways to improve them. When we talk about unemployment, we may frown immediately. I want to tell us that there is much for us to do rather than complaining. We need knowledge to arm us, being equal to the good job. For the unemployment, administrative control can be used only as a means of expediency rather than a long-term solution because it has side effects on resource allocation and market efficiency. This structural control is a means of control adopted willy-nilly by the government when it feels at a loss as to whether total demand is expanding or contracting. If policy makers assert that total demand outstrips supply, they will focus on curtailing total demand. I have the idea that structural inflation adjustment makes scant sense and the future policy direction will be fully tightening. This is also a policy orientation meriting further observation. Of course, it is also possible that policy makers hold unemployment to blame for economic recession.
Another problem is inflation, I have my own points on this topic. This gentle inflation reflects the adjusts of the increasing price of labor productivity, rather than everything in short supply in markets. What we can foresee is the period for increasing price is long. China supported a number of factors need to maintain a long-term moderate price increases through to the structure of a key transition period. There are a number of factors support China to maintain a long-term moderate price which increases under the structure of a key transition period. High levels of inflation reflect a volatile economy in which money does not hold its value for long. Workers require higher wages to cover rising costs, and are disinclined to save. So we must think up a idea to resist inflation.
In addition, when we take a careful look at the fiscal policy, we still find many disadvantages. In addition, the government has invested large amounts of capital and passed favored treatment policies so the state owned enterprises can pull themselves out of the red. In the second half of last year, SOE profits rose 4.4-fold compared with the same period two years ago. While government spending on major projects increased, its expenditures on social welfare rose 1.95-fold during the first half. Government expenditures on public security, technology, education and agricultural technology has also increased. As we all can see these investments will undoubtedly create favorable conditions for SOE reforms, economic structure adjustments and improving the market system. China continued down the path it set out in 2000. It maintained its active fiscal policy in the second half. It followed the direction set by the State Council and issue Treasury bonds at the appropriate time to raise funds for construction projects. It increased supervision and management over the use of funds raised from selling bonds the government has invested large amounts of capital and passed favored treatment policies so the state owned enterprises can pull themselves out of the red. In the second half of last year, SOE profits rose 4.4-fold compared with the same period two years ago. While government spending on major projects increased, its expenditures on social welfare rose 1.95-fold during the first half. In my view, government expenditures on public security, technology, education and agricultural technology should be increased. These investments will undoubtedly create favorable conditions for SOE reforms, economic structure adjustments and improving the market system. China continued down the path it set out in 2000. I think it should maintain its active fiscal policy in the second half and still follow the direction set by the State Council and issue Treasury bonds at the appropriate time to raise funds for construction projects. As a result, our supervision and management over the use of funds raised from selling bonds.
Chapter Ⅴ  Conclusion
These are the specific situation of Chinese economy. From this paper you can grasp a general idea of the Chinese economy. Nevertheless, the PRC is still a lower-middle-income country, with many millions of people living on less than $1 a day. Reducing poverty remains a daunting challenge, as does raising the welfare
of millions living just above poverty. Sustaining growth will be vital for this, and will not be possible without addressing environmental degradation, growing inequality, and the strain on resources. Technologies and practices will need to be improved to
international standards. Multilateral development assistance can continue to play a useful role in addressing these challenges through partnership with the PRC.The goal of the Government’s 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP), 2006–2010, is building a harmonious and moderately prosperous (xiao kang) society. This goal has been affirmed by the 17th Party Congress. To achieve the goal, the Government will address its development challenges through a balanced strategy that aims to build a harmonious society and a socialist market economy that is energy-efficient and environmentally friendly. The FYP sets out various measures with qualitative and quantitative targets. In meeting these targets, the market will play an important role, with the Government providing the enabling environment. A more direct role for the Government is envisaged in public health, compulsory education, social safety nets, and projects involving the poor. However, China has a bright prospect still get a long way to go.
Appendices
economic indicators 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
GDP (US$Billions) 1,640 1,931 2,243 2,644 3,250
GDP Growth (%) 10.0% 10.% 10.4% 10.7% 11.4%
Inflation (%) -0.8% 1.2% 4.1% 1.8% 1.5%
Unemployment (%) 10.1% 9.8% 9.0% 4.2% 4.0%
Foreign Exchange
& Gold Reserves (US$Billions) - 412.7 609.9 825.6 1,534
Mobile Phone Users 65,000,000 269,000,000 269,000,000 393,400,000 461,100,000
Internet Users 45,800,000 94,000,000 94,000,000 111,000,000 162,000,000
Sources: CIA World Factbook, IMF
 
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China
 
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China
 
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China
 
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China
References
Angus Maidisen. (2008). Chinese economic performance in the long run.Shanghai: Shanghai People's Publishing House.
Beijing University of Chinese National Accounts and Economic Growth Research Center.(2008). China economic growth report. Beijing: China's economy Press.
China Daily(2008). World fortune 500 CEOS talk about China. Beijing: New World Press.
China Financial Stability Analysis Group.(2005). China financial stability report 2005. Beijing: China Financial Publishing House.
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Department of Economics.(2008). China economic research report. Beijing: Economic Management Publishing House.
Financial Market Department of the PBC(People's Bank of China ).(2006). China financial market development report 2005. Beijing: China Financial Publishing House.
Financial Stability Analysis Group.(2007). China financial stability report 2006. Beijing: China Financial Publishing House.
Ji Baocheng,Lin Gang.(2008). On the China’s economics of Construction and development. Beijing: Economic Science Press.
Liu Shucheng,Zhang Liancheng,Zhang Ping.(2008). China's economic growth and the economic cycle. Beijing: China's economy Press.
Shi Jinchuan,Li Jianqin.(2008). Contemporary economy of China.Hangzhou: Zhejiang University Publishing House.
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The World Bank Group.(2008). Doing business in China 2008. Beijing: Social Science Documentation Publishing House.
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Mnkiw, N. Goregory.(1997). Marcoeconomics. New York: Worth Publisher.
Xinhua.(2008). Report: China economy to grow 8.6% in 2009.Retrieved on 23th November,2008 from:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn
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http://business.sohu.com/.
本文實證考察經濟增長和中國政府的經濟政策,通過分析經濟表現的數量之間的關系。結果表明,優化經濟政策,推動經濟增長和金融改革。此外,這篇文章談國家的經濟增長和如何開發一個健康的經濟表現的基礎上,我們的經濟目標。此外,我們還分析了當前的經濟形勢,重點對當前問題,打擊,尋找鑰匙給他們,并提高我們的生活水平。
材料追索權:安格斯(2008年);施和李(2008年);:周模汁。(2008年)等。 http://www.chinadaily.com.cn http://english.gov.cn。 http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/
第一章緒論
中國的經濟是巨大的和迅速擴大。在過去的30年中,中國經濟增長的速度一直近乎神奇的平均8%的增長,國內生產總值(GDP)每年。經濟在此期間增長了10倍以上,到2007年中國國內生產總值達到34200億美元。在國內生產總值的購買力平價,中國已經擁有最大的經濟體,僅次于美國。多數分析師預測,中國成為世界最大的經濟體,這個世紀使用國內生產總值的一切措施。本文分析了中國經濟近年來的透視圖。第二章需要仔細看看中國的經濟政策,由中國政府設定的目標,包括財政,貨幣,貿易和經濟增長的政策,在過去的10年,中國政府通過。 Ⅲ標識章介紹中國經濟,這是在過去幾年,中國在經濟表現。 Ⅳ章有關如何健康發展的經濟在未來的一些建議。 Ⅴ章總結了我們,我們的經濟目標是建立一個和諧小康社會的總體思路。為了實現這一目標,政府將解決其發展的挑戰,通過一個平衡的戰略,旨在構建和諧社會和社會主義市場經濟,節能和環保。
 
2.1貨幣政策
申請由中國人民銀行(中國人民銀行)中國政府的貨幣政策工具包括存款準備金率,​​央行基準利率,再貼現,中央銀行貸款,公開市場操作,由國務院指定的其他政策工具。貨幣政策目標是保持貨幣價值的穩定,從而促進1998年經濟增長,國家銀行信貸配額被廢棄,不得不依賴理論中國人民銀行調整自己的資產負債表管理貨幣基礎。此后,中國人民銀行一直試圖制定利率的影響。影響中國貨幣創造的工具,現在大多存在。然而,他們沒有作為有效的,因為他們需要的是使運行一個有效的貨幣政策,中國人民銀行。考慮三個主要的奧妙,折現率和存款準備金。在中國的公開市場操作1998年10月開始,,中國人民銀行開始時現金交易的債券。票據回購相比,可以交易,從而提高流動性,并允許利率基準要形成定期拍賣法案。中國人民銀行已經開發出了初級票據市場,包括52個經銷商,包括銀行,證券公司,保險公司,農村信用社合作社等PBC法案拍賣使用兩個音量和基于速率的招標。中國人民銀行報告有一個專門的奧妙交易室管理由中國人民銀行貨幣政策以下Division.Box 1。起初只從事中國人民銀行本周一個奧妙。在早期的日子里,現金保證金交易是最常見的手段調節基礎貨幣。經過一段時間后,這取代了基于債券回購交易,因為這些影響貨幣市場利率(不影響債券市場)的優勢相對于債券。 2002年6月25日央行開始使用反向的的財政部債券型回購,以應付新的外匯流入。然而,2002年9月,中國人民銀行已用完的債券回購交易,并據此做出。為了解決這個問題,央行確定這樣不會兌現,6月26日和9月24日之間發行的所有未完成的回購合約,但將被轉換成一個新的工具,央行票據。該轉換導致票據值得CNY193.8bn的(USD23.3bn)于2002年9月,央行的資產負債表上出現。 '新'的央行票據于2003年5月發生的第一次拍賣,并自那時以來,市場已經大幅增長。從2003年2月25日,央行已從事兩個(或更多)的公開市場操作一個week.It還制定了流動性管理系統,該系統現在提供了一個每日更新的總結自1998年以來,中國人民銀行公開市場操作對銀行的流動性positions.Table 1(中國金融穩定分析小組,2005)。
表1:公開市場操作
發布基地撤回基地基地凈額賺錢效應
5-12/98 176 107 +70
1999 708 526 181
2000 447 573 -127
2001 825 873 -47
2002 185 305 -120
2003 1,024 1,223 -198
2004 1,218 1,997 -669
資料來源:中國人民銀行貨幣政策執行報告“,作者,水和Sun(2003)
其次,折扣率,中國人民銀行借到錢市場的速率。 2004年3月25日,中國人民銀行出臺了“浮動利率”央行再貼現貸款。換句話說,人民銀行現在有權利設定的折現率,而無需征求國務院許可每次。與此同時,人民銀行新增63個基點基準折現率,為金融機構和27個基點,至央行的核心再貼現利率至3.24%的標準稅率。浮動利率再貼現貸款在三年內將分階段在農村信貸合作社(金融穩定分析小組,2007)。
第三,存款準備金。中國人民銀行降低這個比例如表2所示,在20世紀90年代后期,以刺激信貸增長和給予銀行更多的靈活性,他們是如何管理他們的資金。與此同時,央行已逐步減少儲備,包括法定和超額支付率,如表3所示,為了鼓勵銀行放貸進入貨幣市場,而非其多余的資金存放與中央銀行。 2004年4月25日,人民銀行采取了差別準備金率制度,這意味著二線銀行,資本充足率或資產低于一定標準的質量等必須持有8%的儲量(7.5%的標準水平相比) 。城市和農村信用合作獲豁免暫時從這個規則。馬和麥考(2004)注意到,2004年年中,38個二線銀行須到新的更高水平,影響系統中的存款(中國人民銀行金融市場司,2006年)的10%左右。
表2中。中國的銀行存款準備金率,​​%
存款準備金率%
1985-86 10
1987年12
1988-98 13
1998年8
1999年至2002年6
2003年7
2004 7.5
2005 13
2006 8.5
2007 13.5
資料來源:中國人民銀行
表3中。法定存款準備金支付的利率,%
1998年3月25日5.22
1998.07.01 3.51
1998年12月7日3.24
1999年6月10日2.07
2002年2月21日1.89
2003年12月21日1.89(與新的,較低的超額儲備率)
2004.10.09 5.22
2006.04.28 5.4
2006.08.19 5.58
2007.03.18 5.67
2007.05.19 5.85
2007.07.21 6.03
2007.08.22 6.21
2007.09.1​​5 6.48
2007.12.21 6.57
資料來源:中國人民銀行
注:2003年12月之前,只有一個利率,1.89%,法定和超額儲備。然而,在此日期之后,而這個速度保持所需的儲備,超額儲備支付一個新的,較低的利率為1.62%。 3月17日,利率再次被下調至0.99%(中國人民銀行上海總部,2006年)。
2.2財政政策
財政政策是政府改變稅收和增加政府開支。通過擴張性的財政政策,它的目的是增加可支配收入的數額人都會有。這部分收入將取決于邊際消費傾向,消費,在經濟度過。這樣做的結果將是總需求增加,從而消除了通貨緊縮的差距,這是造成增長或失業。此外,財政政策旨在增加政府支出。如果政府支出增加的投資在經濟,增加了在經濟和投資,這將反過來關閉通貨緊縮缺口將被翻譯成。通過緊縮需求方面的政策,政府的目標是在量減少的可支配收入,從而減少消費在經濟又會導致總需求減少。在政府支出方面,政府將減少政府開支,以減少投資和噸HUS關閉的通脹差距。酌情fiscalpolicy應著眼于長遠來看問題,如稅制改革和社會保障制度改革(吉和林,2008)。
從下面的數字,你可以看到,中國經濟表現良好,上半年經濟指標。
 
資料來源:國家統計局,中國
 
資料來源:國家統計局,中國
以2007年為例,根據數字,中國的國內生產總值同比增長11.4%,零售銷售同比增長16.8%,固定資產投資同比增長24.8%,外貿出口同比增長23.5%。經濟學家指出,中國經濟的好轉表明,中國積極的財政政策工作。財政政策無疑是擴大了內需。中國的財政支出繼續增加上半年,隨著經濟增長。從去年同期17.9%的財政收入總額為624十億億元,同比增長94.6十億。財政支出累計完成583.8億元,同比增長119十億人民幣從去年同期的25.6%(世界銀行集團,2008)。中國積極的財政政策spured通過使用更大的財政支出的經濟增長。近年來,面臨著落后內需,失業增加,經濟結構不合理,農民收入增長緩慢的問題,例如,中國共產黨和國務院決定采取這一政策,以刺激投資和增加消費支出和出口。在1998年下半年,由于亞洲金融危機和國內需求不足,中國政府發行國債100億萬元的基礎設施建設提供資金。除了50億元人民幣債券在1999年的初步預算預留,另外60億元的長期發行債務,增加投資。與此同時,稅收政策,增加投資,擴大出口增加低下階層城鎮居民的收入。在過去兩年中,國家利用國債,加大基礎設施建設,支持企業技術改造,拉動經濟增長。據中央黨校舉行的經濟會議對去年年底,中國繼續實施積極的財政政策。今年年初到今年的財政預算,100億元人民幣國債鉛筆。國家繼續2000年的稅收政策和收入調整政策。在中國的中部和西部地區投資的外國企業享受所得稅15%的削減。外國投資者進行重組是不允許接收稅務缺點。 238交通和汽車的“管理費”,由地方政府征收被淘汰(王,2008)。
增加基礎設施投資不僅造成了資源,如混凝土,鋼材,有色金屬的生產和價格,推高了消費類工業產品的價格。在固定資產投資,房地產,契稅,土地增值稅,營業稅等稅收的消除刺激了中國房地產行業的增長。許多政府的稅收政策嘗試,以鼓勵發展的高科技初創公司。 10億債券被用來提供貸款利率補貼,大型和中等規模的企業可以提升自己的技術(安格斯,2008)。
 
資料來源:國家統計局,中國
2.3貿易政策
貿易額衡量國內經濟的大小關系,并表現為三個值:出口值占GDP的比重,進口價值占國內生產總值的百分比,以及進口和出口的總價值作為國內生產總值的百分比。貿易額顯示多少經濟對外貿的依賴。一個民族的任何需要,它不能產生國內轉向國外。出口反映了對國外市場的依賴,而進口反映依賴于外國制造的商品和服務。高水平的貿易額反映積極地參與全球經濟。目前的帳戶余額[CAB]是創紀錄的資金流入一個國家經濟通過外貿,減去資金流出通過外貿。它表現為國內生產總值的百分比。如需詳細資料,請參閱“詞匯表”。資料來源:國際貨幣基金組織Fund.When一個國家的駕駛室為正,外貿注入資金到其經濟,使更多的可用于投資,消費和稅收。當駕駛室為負,外貿抽走資金其經濟,減少財富存量為這些活動提供(施,李,2008)。世界正在迅速改變。貨物,技術,投資和就業機會,是跨越國界比以往任何時候都更快。全球化從根本上改變世界各地的國家,企業和公民的電子商務的本質,并提出了重大的挑戰。應對這種變化,中國政府已經采取適當的貿易政策,到保持經常賬戶balance.These,是采用了不同的貿易政策根據不同的情況:
1990年至1997年:外國投資增長了十倍,1990年和1997年之間。盡管笨重的合同和法律框架,中國的十億加客戶吸引很多投資者,尤其是從民族的中國香港和臺灣地區(Mnkiw,N. Goregory,1997)附近地區。
1999年:中國的全球貿易總額為353億美元,貿易順差為36十億美元。中國的主要貿易伙伴是日本,臺灣,美國,韓國,香港,德國,新加坡,俄羅斯和荷蘭。在11月,美國和中國的到達鋪平了道路,為中國加入世界貿易組織的雙邊市場準入協議。
2000年:中國在多邊入世包達到世界貿易組織的雙邊協議,與歐盟和其他貿易伙伴,并開始工作。中國要增加出口,鼓勵進口元器件組裝的工廠,出口到消費品的形成。美國批準中國永久貿易關系,美國總統克林頓簽署2000年中國貿易關系法“。
2001-2003年:2001年,中國作為亞太經濟集團(APEC)的椅子;上海舉辦一年一度的APEC領導人會議。 2001年世界貿易組織首腦會議在卡塔爾之后,中國成為世貿組織的正式成員。許多關稅和法規是精簡或結束,但外國投資者仍面臨程序上的障礙。貿易伙伴抱怨,中國的貨幣被低估。
2004-2005年:據報告(中國人民銀行金融市場司,2006年),中國的對外貿易繼續保持快速增長2002年下半年以來,攀升至第五大國的外貿在2002年的第四位,進一步鞏固了其作為一個貿易大國的地位,中國國民經濟的發展作出更大的貢獻。此外,仍然是一個大的空間留給中國的出口增長迅速,2005年。然而,復雜和不斷變化的國際形勢,世界經濟構成潛在威脅,并保持國內上游產品價格的上漲將阻礙出口增長。鼓勵國內投資需求,中國的進口將繼續高走,但增長速度將主要的發展趨勢,國內投資和宏觀調控力和影響休息。
2006-2007年:在2006年,中國的對外貿易達1.76萬億美元,同比增長23.6%,比去年同期相比,排名世界第三位。中國的進口和出口貨物可能為全年達2.1萬美元美元,同比增長20%,超過上年同期水平在2007.External貿易年初以來的持續快速增長,該報告說。外國機械,電子,紡織,服裝和鞋類的銷售錄得持續增長。與主要合作伙伴,包括歐盟,美國和日本,貿易不斷上升(中國社科院2008年經濟社會科學系)。
  
資料來源:國家統計局,中國
2.4經濟增長政策
經濟增長是衡量年度百分之考慮到通脹因素后的國內生產總值(GDP)的價值變化。正的經濟增長率意味著更多的東西比以前更多的生產,更多的勞動力需求和消費,稅收和投資提供更多的財富。負增長,意味著經濟正在萎縮。喬布斯更加稀缺和不支付,以及在繁榮時期。這些都是中國經濟增長在1998至2003年:
1998-2000:到1999年,有1.25億人,3,800元,人均國內生產總值,中國是在世界上經濟增長最快的,也是僅次于美國的第二大的,但該國仍然較差,缺乏貨幣政策和財政控制管理其龐大的經濟。政府會提供失敗的國有企業貸款的銀行,但他們沒有償還。銀行系統受到威脅。
2001-2003年:中國加入WTO后,外國投資激增至創紀錄的新高。強勁增長掩蓋內部城市和農村地區之間的差距,沿海和內陸地區。削減關稅和規則簡化業務,但仍然深深困擾著巨大的國有部門和極硬改革。在2003年致命的SARS病毒的傳播,對中國的經濟造成嚴重沖擊。 (姬林,2008年)
2004-2007:接下來的幾年繼續見證中國經濟的快速崛起,強調質量和速度。在上半年的21世紀,農村仍然是擴大內需,促進經濟增長的“戰略堡壘”。在能源和資源方面的挑戰面前,中國計劃在30年的資源節約型社會奠定了基礎。其他重點包括:建立國際交流的良好環境,堅持“引進的路徑,走出去”,推進國際競爭與合作的基礎上互惠互利,雙贏的局面。此外,為了追求自主創新,發展民營企業,從事當地政府和企業,以提高中國的經濟活力和可持續增長(http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/)的倡議。
2.5經濟目標
中國采用的“五年計劃”的經濟發展戰略。第九個五年計劃(1996-2000年)是出色的成功,映射出的第十個五年計劃(2001-2005年),為新世紀的第一個計劃,這些主要目標:
- 持續較快增長,結構戰略性調整,提高經濟增長的質量和效益,奠定了堅實的基礎,2000年國內生產總值翻一番,到2010年大幅完善的社會主義市場經濟,把國有企業的現代企業的基礎上,從而允許更大程度上參與國際合作與競爭(劉和張,2008)。
- 國內生產總值將達到約12,500億人民幣,人均GDP9400元2005年(按2000年價格計算,假設全年經濟增長7%左右)。
- 優化和產業結構升級,增強中國的競爭優勢。到2005年,小學,中學和第三產業的附加值將占分別為13%,51%和36%,國內生產總值,從業人員44%,23%和33%,分別勞動力。進一步改善基礎設施,增加城市化和實現有效控制的條件下區域間的發展差距拉大。
這些目標已經提前實現。目前,政府正在實施第十一個五年計劃(2006-2010年)。
第Ⅲ章概述中國經濟
繼在2003年10月舉行的中國共產黨的十一屆三中全會,中國的立法者亮相國家憲法的若干建議修訂。其中最顯著的是私有產權提供保護的建議。議員們還表示,有將是一個新的重點放在政府整體經濟政策的某些方面,包括努力降低失業率(現在在8-10%的范圍內,市區),以平衡城市和農村地區之間的收入分配,并保持經濟增長的同時保護環境和提高社會公平。全國人大開會時批準修訂2004年3月(金融穩定分析小組,2007)。
五中全會于2005年10月批準了第十一個五年經濟計劃(2006-2010年)旨在通過更均衡的財富分配在建設“和諧社會”,改善教育,醫療和社會保障。 2006年3月,全國人大批準的第十一個五年計劃。該計劃要求相對保守的國內生產總值增長45%和減少20%的能源強度(單位國內生產總值能源消耗)2010.China的經濟增長在1990-2004年期間,每年平均增長率為10%,在世界上最高的增長速度。在2003年,中國的國內生產總值同比增長10.0%,10.1%,在2004年,甚至更快2005年的10.4%,盡管由政府試圖給經濟降溫。中國的貿易總額在2006年超過17600億美元,使中國成為世界第三大貿易國,僅次于美國和德國。這樣的高增長是必要的,如果中國要產生15萬個就業崗位,每年需要 - 規模大致厄瓜多爾或柬埔寨 - 采用新的進入就業市場。 (周,2008年)
4.1通貨膨脹
通貨膨脹是衡量生活在該國認為有必要的貨物的價格作為年度百分比變化。具體包括在這個“市場籃子”商品,只有很少改變,所以這項措施反映了該國貨幣的購買力的波動。資料來源:國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)。生產者反過來可能會提高他們的銷售價格,以彌補這些增加,生產規模背來檢查他們的成本(裁員),或失敗的投資在今后的生產中。在2007-2008年的冬天,通脹跑了約7%,上一年度的基礎上,在統計的8.7%上升到2008年2月,2008年3月發布。食品和燃料行業的主要問題領域,肉類和燃料冒充特殊困難。在2007年的秋天,由于煉油廠不愿生產燃料以低廉的價格由國家開發汽油和柴油燃料短缺。與燃料銷售,于2007年11月,這些價格均略有增加為每加侖2.65美元,仍稍低于世界價格。價格管制在許多基本產品和服務的影響,但其中食品價格上升18.2%,按年率計算(北京大學中國國民經濟核算與經濟增長研究中心,2008)在2007年11月,是無效的。通脹問題已引起中國政府的最高水平。中國政府2008年1月9日在其官方網站上發表了如下聲明:“中國政府周三決定進一步采取措施,穩定市場價格和增加的嚴重程度處罰那些犯有通過囤積或作弊哄抬價格“。人均消費量的五分之一,每天一斤豬肉是中國經濟的重要組成部分。導致中國豬肉價格的急劇上升,在2007年全球范圍內的價格上升,飼料與玉米乙醇產量增加。隨著需求的增加,工資上漲迅速導致嚴重的生產成本增加互動。國家回應,為學生和城市貧困人口的豬肉價格補貼,并要求增加生產。從國家的戰略豬肉儲備豬肉的釋放被認為是。
2008年1月,通脹率上升至7.1%,其中BBC新聞描述為1997年以來最高的通貨膨脹率,由于一個月的冬季風暴。中國的通貨膨脹率躍升到一個新的十年新高的8.7%,在2008年2月雪災后,擾亂了經濟和糧食短缺惡化,政府說,2008年3月11日。然而,整個夏天和秋天,通貨膨脹再次下跌到2008年10月(“中國日報”,2008年)低6.6%。在過去的幾年里,中國通脹的變化了。從2000年到2002年,通脹率逐年下降。這種現象的原因是復雜的,但我們可以肯定的是,我們的經濟發展是不穩定的。直到2006年,我們見證了一個更穩定的經濟發展,我國已經找到了新的方式來控制通脹。
下表顯示了近年來中國每年的通脹率。
年份變化%
2000 0.4
2001 -0.7
2002 -0.8
2003 1.2
2004 3.9
2005 1.8
2006 1.5
資料來源:中國國家統計局
4.2失業
失業率是衡量每年的勞動力無法找到工作的百分比。勞動力包括成年人誰想要工作。計數的是那些誰不尋求就業,或灰心足以停止尋找。資料來源:國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)。經濟是由消費支出和儲蓄投資。失業工人賺不到工資,他們花一點,少儲蓄。經濟與高​​失業率的經濟停滯。中國經濟可能出現滯脹。部勞動和社會保障顯示,在過去五年中,中國的城市新的就業機會,每​​年有超過9,000,000人,2007年,以達到12,040,000人,創造一個積極的就業政策以來最好水平的實施;共25,000,000狀態國有和集體企業下崗職工重新就業,城鎮登記失業率由今年的4.3%逐年下降,由2007年至4.0%。在現實中,中國政府一直傾向于削弱總量政策的同時,加強結構性政策。這一輪緊縮政策,可以說是選擇性的“點殺”處理不同的事情不同。例如,不同的行業和企業區別對待,有選擇性地。這樣的控制結構的控制,但政府并沒有說是否收縮或擴大總需求(周,2008)。
這種控制裝置可增強宏觀調控的重點,但它也包含行政手段,可能會傷害了市場經濟的正常運作。
這就是為什么有些人聲稱,中國的市場經濟運行回落,因這一輪宏觀調控的結果。為了擴大總需求將擴大需求,刺激消費。在這種情況下,結構調整將無法正常工作,由于必須采取相反的政策方向。在我看來,政府應該不再采用任何行政控制手段在任何情況下。在短期內,中國經濟的通脹傾向,但是,因此失業老邁,從長遠來看。因此,貨幣政策不再進一步收緊收緊,法定存款準備金率已經達到17.5%,截至今日,因為沒有足夠的空間。當通脹肆虐,約20%于1994年,法定準備金率提高到13%左右。因此,進一步收緊的空間是非常有限的。 (趙,2002)
4.3政府開支
政府支出的年度價值的商品和服務,所有的政府支出花費如此大量的的國內product.Government總值的百分比,它有能力以穩定商品市場和其他提振經濟的不穩定部分。同樣的道理,政府是不是很靈活,它慢慢對市場信號作出反應。因此,其補救方法可能是不合時宜的,甚至是無益的。經濟高度依賴政府支出可能不太能把握新興機遇。
好了,下面的表格以及描述我們的支出增加。據我所知,昔日相比,我們的生活水平提高了多少。為了滿足人民群眾的需要,我國政府作出很大的努力,如加強基礎設施實驗。隨著科技和教育在國家發展中起著很大的作用,政府對科學和技術的一部分錢。在此條件下,收入受更多或更少。顯然,這有助于增加收入。
支出增加
 (10 000澳門元)
項目2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年①
經常支出
  工資286983 295920 325074 343365 378572
  商品和服務57259 66366 77837 87397 141465
  利息-----
  經常轉移525171 559490 712599 818346r 859539
  其他支出4807 4970 5687 8033 94826
資本開支
  投資236169 339416 433827 435491 351594
  資本轉移2651 12133 6304 8800 9941
  金融交易33217 40140 13886 31037 49689
  其他資本開支-----
自治機構425040 451866 543212 1002507r - 
總計1571297 1770301 2118426 2734976r 1885626
注:①2007年的數字作出修訂,隨著越來越多的數據變得可用。
章Ⅳ建議
目前的全球金融危機通過的美國國和歐洲蕩漾,中國一旦增壓的經濟增長已經放緩急劇,下降的2007年第二季度的12.6%到9%左右在今年第三季度,根據國家統計數據。中國如何才能生存下去?有沒有一定的答案。我的建議如下:首先,我們應該采取一些寬松的貨幣政策,積極的財政政策和產業升級的行業標準,并在稅收,信貸和外匯交易以及一些計劃。其次,除了積極的財政政策,政府應該減稅,以降低企業的成本,并減輕人們的財務負擔,鼓勵投資和消費,這兩個國家的經濟增長的主要動力。第三,我們需要目前市場資源的合理分配,以促進中國經濟結構的升級。此外,在基礎設施建設的大規模投資,根據目前的經濟形勢下,刺激國內需求下降和穩定投資。適當的政策控制下,在我看來,經濟增長速度將仍然high.In不久的將來,國內生產總值增長率將達到10.5%。我認為我們應該加強各項宏觀經濟政策的組合管理,為消除經濟過熱的壓力,并減緩本輪經濟周期模式的繁榮創造條件。當談到中國經濟問題,我們可以看到壯觀的貿易表現,投資高流動,高GDP增長背后存在嚴重的不平衡的問題。高數字的不良貸款拖累國營銀行系統。低效的國有企業(國有企業)仍然是經濟增長的拖累,盡管公布的努力,絕大多數國有企業改革,出售,合并,或關閉。社會和經濟指標有所改善,因為改革的推出,但之間的高度發達的沿海省份和欠發達,貧窮的內陸地區日益嚴重的不平等是顯而易見的。據世界銀行估計,2007年,大約300萬中國人 - 主要是在農村地區落后的內陸省份 - 仍然生活在貧困中,消費低于1美元一個day.In結論,現在是時候為我們的政府采取措施改善這些惡劣的條件下。我們偉大的國家的目標包括:生活質量顯著改善,與城鎮居民可支配收入和農村居民純收入5%,每年增長;在登記的城鎮失業率穩定保持在5%左右,保持價格總體穩定國際收支基本平衡,等等(新華社,2008),但在現實中,我們不得不面對這些問題,并提高他們的斗爭方式。當我們談論失業問題,我們可以馬上皺眉頭。我想告訴我們,還有很多我們這樣做,而不是抱怨。我們需要知識來武裝我們,等于做好。至于失業率,行政控制可用于僅作為權宜之計的一種手段,而不是一個長期的解決方案,因為它有副作用,對資源分配和市場效率。這種結構控制是一種手段,時不管三七二十一采用由政府控制,它處于虧損狀態,總需求膨脹或收縮的感覺。如果政策制定者斷言,總需求超過供應,他們將重點放在削減總需求。我有這個想法,結構性通脹調整使得缺乏意義和未來的政策方向將全面收緊。這也是一個政策取向,值得進一步觀察。當然,它也有可能是政策制定者保持失業歸咎于經濟衰退。
另一個問題是通貨膨脹,我有我自己對這個話題點。這種溫和的通脹反映了勞動生產率的提高價格調整,而不是在市場上供不應求的一切。我們可以預見的是價格不斷上漲的期間長。中國支持多項因素,需要保持一個長期溫和的價格上漲,通過結構的一個重要的過渡時期。有很多因素支持中國保持長期的價格適中的增加的結構下,一個關鍵的過渡期。高通脹水平反映復雜多變的經濟環境中,貨幣不持有其長期價值。工人要求更高的工資來彌補成本上升,都不愿意保存。因此,我們必須想出一個主意抵御通脹。
另外,仔細一看,當我們采取的財政政策,我們仍然可以找到很多缺點。此外,政府已經投入了大量資金,并通過國有企業的優待政策,所以可以拉自己的紅色。在去年下半年,與兩年前同期相比,國有企業利潤同比增長4.4倍。雖然政府在重大項目上的支出增加,其在社會福利方面的支出同比增長1.95倍,在上半年。公安,科技,教育和農業技術的政府支出也有所增加。大家都可以看到這些投資無疑將創造有利條件,為國有企業改革,經濟結構調整和完善的市場體系。中國繼續它在2000年的路徑。保持積極的財政政策在下半年。它遵循的方向,由國務院在適當的時間,以提高項目建設資金和發行國債。增加政府已經投入了大量資金,并通過國有企業的優待政策,所以可以拉自己的紅色出售債券募集資金使用​​情況的監督和管理。在去年下半年,與兩年前同期相比,國有企業利潤同比增長4.4倍。雖然政府在重大項目上的支出增加,其在社會福利方面的支出同比增長1.95倍,在上半年。在我看來,應增加政府支出,公安,科技,教育和農業技術。這些投資將無疑創造了有利條件,為國有企業改革,經濟結構調整和完善市場體系。中國繼續它在2000年的路徑。我覺得應該保持積極的財政政策在下半年仍然按照設定的方向在適當的時間,以提高項目建設資金由國務院和發行國債。因此,本公司募集資金使用​​的監督和管理,從銷售債券。
第五章結論
這些都是中國經濟的具體情況。從這份文件中,可以掌握中國經濟的總體思路。然而,中國仍然是一個中等偏下收入國家,數以百萬計的人生活在每天不到1美元。減少貧困仍然是一項艱巨的挑戰,并提高福利
數以百萬計略高于貧困生活。持續增長,這將是至關重要的,不應對環境的惡化,越來越多的不平等,資源緊張的情況下是不可能的。需要加以改進,以技術和實踐
國際標準。多邊發展援助能夠繼續發揮有益的作用,在應對這些挑戰,通過伙伴關系與PRC.The政府的第十一個五年計劃(FYP)2006-2010年的目標,是建設和諧小康(小康社會) 。這個目標已經由黨的十七大的肯定。為了實現這一目標,政府將解決其發展的挑戰,通過一個平衡的戰略,旨在構建和諧社會和社會主義市場經濟,節能和環保。 “十一五”規劃設定了定性和定量目標的各種措施。在滿足這些目標,市場將發揮重要的作用,與政府提供有利的環境。設想在公共衛生,義務教育,社會安全網,以及項目涉及扶貧,政府更直接的作用。然而,中國有一個光明的前景仍然獲得了很長的路要走。
附錄
經濟指標2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年
國內生產總值(十億美元)1,640 1,931 2,243 2,644 3,250
國內生產總值增長(%)10.0%10%10.4%10.7%11.4%
通脹率(%)-0.8%1.2%4.1%1.8%1.5%
失業率(%)10.1%9.8%9.0%4.2%4.0%
外匯
黃金儲備(十億美元) - 412.7 609.9 825.6 1,534
移動電話用戶65,000,000 269,000,000 269,000,000 393400000 461100000
互聯網用戶45,800,000 94,000,000 94,000,000 111,000,000 162,000,000
資料來源:美國中央情報局“世界概況”,國際貨幣基金組織
 
資料來源:國家統計局,中國
 
資料來源:國家統計局,中國
 
資料來源:國家統計局,中國
 
資料來源:國家統計局,中國
參考文獻
安格斯麥迪森。 (2008年)。中國經濟表現長期run.Shanghai:上海人民出版社。
北京大學中國國民經濟核算與經濟增長研究中心(2008年)。中國經濟增長報告。北京:中國經濟出版社。
“中國日報”(2008年)。世界財富500強的CEO們談論有關中國的。北京:新世界出版社。
中國金融穩定分析小組(2005年)。中國金融穩定報告2005。北京:中國金融出版社。
中國社會科學部經濟研究院(2008年)。中國經濟研究報告。北京:經濟管理出版社。
中國人民銀行金融市場司(中國人民銀行中國)(2006)。中國金融市場發展報告2005。北京:中國金融出版社。
金融穩定分析小組(2007年)。中國金融穩定報告2006。北京:中國金融出版社。
紀寶成,林剛(2008)。在中國的經濟建設和發展。北京:經濟科學出版社。
劉樹成,張連城,張平(2008年)。中國的經濟增長和經濟周期。北京:中國經濟出版社。
史晉川,李建勤(2008年)。當代經濟China.Hangzhou:浙江大學出版社出版。
中國人民銀行(中國人民銀行中國)上海總公司(2006年)。 200中國金融市場發展報告“。北京:中國金融出版社。
世界銀行集團(2008)。 2008年在中國做業務。北京:社會科學文獻出版社。
王正(2008年)。中國經濟的長期發展。北京:社會科學文獻出版社。
Mnkiw,N. Goregory(1997年)。宏觀經濟學。紐約:值得出版商。
新華社(2008年)。報告:中國經濟增長8.6%,從2008年11月23日2009.Retrieved:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn
周模卮(2008年)。中國經濟。北京:人民出版社。
趙曉(2002年),中國的失業問題上的危機。檢索2002年8月1日:
http://business.sohu.com/。

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